Abstract
This paper presents a general model—based on the Monte Carlo simulation—for the estimation of power system uncertainties and associated reserve and balancing power requirements. The proposed model comprises wind, PV and load uncertainty, together with wind and PV production simulation. In the first stage of the model, wind speed and solar irradiation are simulated, based on the plant disposition and relevant data. The second stage of the model consists of wind speed, PV power and load forecast error simulation, based on the associated statistical parameters. Finally, both wind and PV forecast error are combined with the load forecast error, resulting in the net uncertainty. This net uncertainty, aggregated on a yearly level, presents a dominant component in balancing power requirements. Proposed model presents an efficient solution in planning phase when the actual data on wind and PV production is unavailable.
Josip Vasilj
Associate Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Researcher and Associate Professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture in Split, where he teaches courses related to engineering economics, power system analysis, power grids and machine learning. His research focus is the application of advanced numerical methods to problems in the analysis and planning of power system operations.
Petar Sarajčev
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Damir Jakus
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Researcher and a full professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Split. His research interests include power system optimization and planning, RES integration, electricity market modeling.