MCMC simulation of wind speed time series

Ranko Goić, Jakov Krstulović Opara, Damir Jakus
January 2010
Cite

Abstract

Power system design issues require stochastic simulation methods in order to derivate synthetic time series for the stochastic source modelling. In this paper, essential aspects about the use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for wind speed activity simulation, are analyzed. Emphasis is given to simulation of multiple, spatially correlated wind speed time series. The modified MCMC simulation method is introduced, aimed to capture the stochastic dependency between the series, in conjunction with individual persistence.

Type
Conference paper
Publication
6th PhD Seminar on Wind Energy in Europe
Monte Carlo Simulation Markov Chain Time Series Stochastic Dependency
Ranko Goić
Ranko Goić
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations

Full professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture in Split exeperienced in transmission and distribution networks, renewable energy sources (RES), power system planing and economics

Damir Jakus
Damir Jakus
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations

Researcher and a full professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Split. His research interests include power system optimization and planning, RES integration, electricity market modeling.