Correlation analysis of the Basin Inflows

Abstract

The problem of optimal use of reservoirs is particularly complex, because the production of electricity in one basin indirectly affects the required production from other power plants in the system, the operating costs of the entire electricity system, profits, etc. Several reservoirs and a number of users need to be observed simultaneously. The basic input data in all simulation and optimization calculations are the natural inflows into reservoirs. Interconnections in the occurrence of certain inflows significantly affect the modeling of inflows in calculations. Within the framework of correlation analysis, the existence of a connection between two sets of data, its shape, strength and direction, is established. Based on relevant hydrological data measured over a number of years, a correlation analysis of natural inflows into reservoirs in different river basins was performed. The correlation analysis of inflows of geographically close river basins included the calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients and distribution diagrams between inflows into reservoirs on the Cetina, Krka and Zrmanja rivers. Correlation analysis of geographically distant river basins included calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients and scatter plots between inflows into the Cetina and Kupa rivers and Cetina and Drava river basins. Significant differences in the average strength of connections were observed in various examples.

Elis Sutlović

Full Professor | Department of Electrical Intallations and Systems

Tonći Modrić

Associate Professor | Department of Electrical Intallations and Systems

Researcher and Full Professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture in Split. His research focus is numerical modeling and calculation of the electric and magnetic fields in power systems and transmission lines, with an emphasis on the development of advanced models for interpreting geoelectrical ground survey data. Additionally, he is involved in the analysis of electromagnetic transients in systems with a high share of renewable energy sources, using finite element techniques.