RISK ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER PLANT PROJECT FINANCIAL PARAMETERS EVALUATION
Abstract
In this paper, the basic financial risks in the development of the wind farm project were discussed. The construction project of a wind power plant is a complex project exposed to the influence of various factors, the occurrence of which cannot be predicted in advance, and which can significantly affect the realization of the planned economic parameters, i.e. the profitability of the wind power plant. Determining the parameters that significantly affect the course of the project and assessing their uncertainty are the assumptions with which the analytical part of the work begins. Non-realization of planned input parameters and resulting economic indicators was simulated using the Monte-Carlo method. The basic results of the simulation are given by the probability distributions of criterion variables and the probability of realization of unfavorable scenarios. Based on these probabilities, it is possible to assess the level of risk of the project as a whole.
Josip Vasilj
Associate Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Researcher and Associate Professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture in Split, where he teaches courses related to engineering economics, power system analysis, power grids and machine learning. His research focus is the application of advanced numerical methods to problems in the analysis and planning of power system operations.
Damir Jakus
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Researcher and a full professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Split. His research interests include power system optimization and planning, RES integration, electricity market modeling.
Ranko Goić
Full Professor | Department of Power Grids and Substations
Full professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture in Split exeperienced in transmission and distribution networks, renewable energy sources (RES), power system planing and economics